System Interaction and Scenario-Based Simulation of Coupling Coordination Between Low-Carbon Transportation and High-Quality Economic Development in the Yellow River Jiziwan Metropolitan Area

Clarifying the mutual feedback relationship and coordinated evolution characteristics between low-carbon transportation (LCT) and high-quality economic development (HQED) is of great significance for the green transformation of resource-based and ecologically fragile urban agglomerations. Taking 18 cities in the Yellow River Jiziwan Metropolitan Area as the research objects, this paper constructs an evaluation indicator system for LCT and HQED based on panel data from 2013 to 2022, and comprehensively applies the ISM-MICMAC model, a modified coupling coordination degree model, a gravity model, an obstacle degree model, and a combined GM-ARIMA forecasting model to analyze the interaction relationships, spatiotemporal evolution, spatial correlations, and scenario differences between the two systems. The results indicate that: (1) A hierarchical mutual feedback relationship exists between LCT and HQED, in which the relevant factors exhibit a hierarchical association within the system structure, extending from basic input, transportation supply, and economic operation to green and low-carbon outcomes. (2) During the study period, the comprehensive development levels of the two systems generally improved, with the mean coupling coordination degree rising from 0.4374 in 2013 to 0.4702 in 2022, remaining overall at a borderline coordination stage, while inter-city divergence was relatively pronounced. (3) The spatial connection network gradually exhibited multi-node linkage characteristics, yet strong connections remained concentrated in a few core cities. (4) Scenario predictions reveal that the synergistic development scenario is most conducive to enhancing the coupling coordination level, and the differences among scenarios gradually widen after 2026. Simultaneously advancing LCT and HQED is an important pathway to enhance the regional synergy level of the Yellow River Jiziwan Metropolitan Area.