System Dynamics in a Nutshell: Learning from Simplified Versions of Three Larger Policy Models

Simplified versions of three larger, previously published system dynamics policy simulation models were built and tested. The three models address (a) evolving use of a new medical technology; (b) the U.S. opioid epidemic; and (c) local healthcare system performance and financing. The smaller models produce key outputs and policy results that resemble those of the original larger models, although, of course, in a less thorough and detailed way. The purpose of this exercise was to determine whether simplification might be a broadly applicable strategy for modelers seeking to make their large policy models more transparent. If model simplification can lead to the same central policy findings as a larger version does, then it may serve as an additional tool for learning beyond descriptive documentation, experiential “flight simulators”, and loop dominance analysis of the large model.