Synergistic maturity group and planting date adaptation sustains irrigated soybean yields under warming

Abstract

High temperatures increasingly threaten US soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr.] seed yields, yet actionable solutions remain limited. The APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) model was evaluated against observed regional data from the US Mid‐South, and gridded simulations were conducted across 4651 fields to identify how concurrent changes in planting date and maturity group affected yield under rising temperatures and elevated [CO ₂ ]. The +2°C temperature scenario reduced yields by 5.7% on average. Combining a later maturing soybean genotype with earlier sowing synergistically increased soybean yield by 12% under the +2°C scenario. These results revealed an opportunity to sustain soybean yield through management and genotype selection under warming. Advancing our understanding of management and genotypic effects on soybean phenology and improving their representation in process‐based models are therefore essential for developing adaptive strategies that can support durable yield gains under high‐temperature conditions.