Sustained Diffusion of Green Agricultural Technologies: A Theoretical Agent-Based Analysis of Market Feedback and Cost Learning

The sustained diffusion of green agricultural technologies depends on how the incentives encouraging initial adoption evolve into conditions supporting continued production. This study develops a theoretical agent-based model with normalized parameters to examine how endogenous market feedback, temporary subsidies, production learning, operator heterogeneity, and social observation jointly shape recurring production decisions. The simulations reveal a temporal distinction among these mechanisms. Temporary subsidies increase participation during the support period but leave little late-stage difference after withdrawal, whereas stronger demand and experience-based cost reductions support continued production by improving its economic viability. Production experience also links market disruption to subsequent recovery: when a temporary contraction in demand interrupts green production, the depreciation of retained experience delays the recovery of participation after demand is restored. Economic attributes generate substantial differences across the modeled operator types, while network exposure exerts its strongest influence during the early diffusion stage. Relatively stable aggregate participation can nevertheless coexist with continuing individual entry and exit. These findings connect sustained diffusion with the joint evolution of market returns, productive capabilities, and participation histories, indicating that initial adoption incentives should be coordinated with market development and support for the continuity of production.