Sustainable Climate and Energy Transition in the European Union: Results, Barriers, and Policy Effectiveness

This study examines progress in the climate and energy transition across the 27 European Union Member States, considering the objectives of the “3 × 20” climate and energy package, the European Green Deal, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Using Eurostat data for 2010–2024, the analysis explores changes in greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy shares, and energy efficiency, complemented by cross-sectional regression models based on selected country observations for 2024. Linear, quadratic, and cubic specifications are estimated to investigate the relationships between GDP per capita, domestic net greenhouse gas emissions, and primary energy consumption, supported by formal model comparisons and sensitivity analyses. For the 10-country greenhouse gas subsample, the cubic specification explains 91.3% of the observed variance (R2 = 0.913), although information criteria favour a more parsimonious linear model. For the broader 14-country subsample, the cubic model yields R2 = 0.559, suggesting a nonlinear relationship that remains sensitive to sample composition. Additional analysis identifies statistically different relationships between income levels and primary energy consumption across two selected seven-country groups, as supported by a pooled interaction test. Bootstrap and country-exclusion analyses further highlight the uncertainty associated with small cross-sectional samples, limiting causal interpretation and generalisation across the EU. A complementary SWOT analysis identifies key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats affecting the transition, linking the empirical findings to EU emissions trading, renewable energy policies, and just-transition financing. Overall, the findings highlight uneven transition patterns across European economies and underscore the importance of differentiated policy instruments, sustained investment in clean energy and technological innovation, and stronger institutional support for an inclusive and sustainable transition.