Suspended Futures: School Discipline, Depressive Symptoms, and College/University Degree Attainment

School discipline disproportionately affects Black students and is associated with diminished academic outcomes. However, the mechanisms through which exclusionary discipline constrains college/university degree attainment—and the role of mental health in this pathway—remain underexplored with longitudinal data from a large urban birth cohort. This study examines whether depressive symptoms mediate the relationship between high school discipline and college/university degree attainment, and whether this mediation pathway varies by race and sex. Using data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 1417), I employed generalized structural equation modeling (GSEM) to test a serial mediation model: school discipline (Year 15) → depressive symptoms (Year 15) → college-going behaviors (Year 15) → college/university degree attainment (Year 22). Bootstrap confidence intervals (1000 replications) tested indirect effects. Moderation analyses examined whether the mediation pathway differed by race, sex, and depressive symptoms’ severity. School discipline significantly predicted higher depressive symptoms (b = 0.46, p = 0.001), which in turn predicted fewer college-going behaviors (b = −0.02, p = 0.001) and lower odds of college/university degree attainment (OR = 0.89, p = 0.001). The total indirect effect through depressive symptoms was significant (b = −0.06, 95% BC CI [−0.134, −0.017]). Sex, but not race (F = 0.24, p = 0.868), moderated the discipline–depressive pathway: discipline increased depressive symptoms more strongly for females (b = 0.78, p = 0.001) than males (b = 0.21, p = 0.251). Depressive symptoms amplified discipline’s effect on college/university degree attainment (interaction OR = 0.39, p = 0.037). Depressive symptoms partially mediate school discipline’s negative effect on college attainment, with the strongest effects among females. Higher education institutions must prepare to support students whose K-12 experiences were marked by exclusionary discipline.