Supporting Organizational Resilience Under Systemic Disruptions: A Process-Role Model for Technologically Complex Projects

Systemic disruptions in technologically complex projects often spread beyond the function in which they are first detected. This article follows that movement in two contrasting cases: research and development (R&D) of a software-hardware measuring complex and production of optical data-transmission equipment. The study uses a comparative two-case design and examines corporate records for 2020–2025 through factor screening, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation. The propagation paths differ. In R&D, restricted access to critical components leads to supplier search, technical qualification, documentation changes, and repeated testing; in production, the main consequences arise through component completeness, delivery delays, production scheduling, and shipment timing. Quantitative assessment estimates downside net present value (NPV) exposure rather than resilience itself. A compound sensitivity analysis indicates that simultaneous deterioration in component availability and delivery conditions may materially increase financial exposure. The process-role model connects the disruption signal to the affected process, the role responsible for interpreting its consequences, and the level at which corrective action can be authorized. Organizational resilience is treated as the management context for this interface, not as a directly measured outcome.