Summer Cloud Cover Changes and Its Radiative Effects on Surface Temperature and Precipitation over Central Asia

Central Asia (CA) has experienced substantial climate change in recent decades, yet the role of clouds in regulating the regional climate remains poorly quantified. Here, we investigate changes in summer temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and cloud radiative effects over CA using observations for 1979–2025 and CERES data for 2000–2025. Summer temperature increased significantly (0.036 °C a−1, p < 0.01) with accelerated warming after 2000, accompanied by an increasing precipitation (0.110 mm a−1). Since 2000, increasing temperature and precipitation have coincided with significant decreases in total, high-, middle-low-, and low-level cloud cover, but increases in middle-high cloud cover. Cloud cover was generally negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation, whereas middle-high cloud cover showed positive correlations with both variables. A maximum power-constrained surface energy balance framework indicates that all-sky surface temperatures are approximately 3.41 °C lower than clear-sky temperatures, demonstrating a substantial cloud cooling effect. Cloud-induced cooling increased significantly with precipitation intensity, primarily because shortwave radiative cooling strengthened more rapidly than the opposing longwave warming effect. These findings highlight the importance of cloud amount and vertical structure in regulating the surface energy balance and modulating climate variability in CA, particularly under increasing precipitation intensity with global warming.