Structuring school closure decisions: a phase-based knowledge agenda for future pandemics

During the COVID-19 pandemic, schools closed for extended periods, affecting adolescents’ education, social life, and well-being. There is currently no structured, phase-based knowledge agenda integrating epidemiological, educational, and societal evidence to guide school closure decisions, resulting in fragmented consideration of outbreak control and broader impacts. We therefore examined what policy actors need to know to inform future pandemic school closure decisions. As part of a transdisciplinary project, we conducted a visioning exercise (January 2025) with stakeholders from education, public health, mental health, youth representation, and policymaking (n = 11), alongside researchers (n = 9). Using a fictitious avian influenza scenario, participants identified key knowledge needs. Inputs were discussed, synthesised, thematically analysed, and validated in a follow-up session (June 2025). This process identified four interconnected phases (cold phase and pre-/during/post-closure) and multiple knowledge domains linked through feedback loops. We developed an integrated, phase-based knowledge agenda linking decision points to evidence needs and evaluation cycles. The framework connects epidemiological, educational, and psychosocial evidence within a single decision architecture, making trade-offs between infection control and societal impacts, and intervention timing explicit. It specifies mitigation actions during closures, including needs assessment, communication, and alternatives for learning and social interaction. It also incorporates short-term monitoring and longer-term research priorities across epidemiological, educational, mental health, and economic domains, with attention to adolescents’ perspectives and underserved groups. This study provides an operational tool, structuring decision-making across phases, domains, and actors, enabling explicit trade-offs, timing, and continuous feedback between evidence generation, policy decisions, and evaluation.

Key messages

• No structured framework currently integrates epidemiological and societal evidence for school closure decisions; this study introduces a phase-based decision-making framework to address this gap.

• Structuring decisions around explicit phases, trade-offs, and feedback loops may improve the proportionality, transparency, and adaptability of pandemic responses affecting adolescents.