Structured by the past: the origins of territorial claims, peaceful attempts, and settlements

Abstract

Research on the mediation and settlement of territorial claims underemphasises the role of historical contexts in shaping these conflicts. This study proposes that the origins of territorial claims condition the occurrence and outcome of subsequent peaceful attempts and disaggregates the origins of territorial claims into three types: (1) opportunism; (2) territorial loss; and (3) national independence. Claims originating from national independence are more likely to rely on and be settled with binding peaceful efforts because of the political cover effect and colonial ties. To test these hypotheses, I collect new data on the origins of 843 territorial claims in the world for the period 1816–2001. The results of logistic regression and competing risk analyses support the expectations, thereby underscoring the importance of historical contexts in explaining the settlements of territorial disputes.