Structural Vulnerability of Global Trade of Embodied Tin in Final Products: A Complex Network and Cascading Failure Analysis

The global trade of tin-containing products has become increasingly complex due to supply–demand imbalances, geopolitical risks, and high trade concentration. Ensuring supply chain stability is critical for sectors such as electronics. This study constructed a global tin trade network (2000–2024), applied complex network analysis, and developed a cascading failure model to assess structural vulnerability and simulate supply disruptions. Results showed a highly concentrated network, with China, the United States, and Germany acting as key hubs. China emerged as the largest exporter of tin-containing final products in 2024 (84.70 kt), while the United States was the largest importer (27.82 kt) in 2024. The electronics and machinery sectors were particularly vulnerable, exhibiting large avalanche sizes and deep propagation hierarchies, while home appliances and food packaging showed comparatively lower risks. Simulations further revealed that disruptions in major supplier countries, particularly China, could trigger cascading failures affecting 193 economies (80.1% of all trading partners). To improve resilience, this study highlighted the importance of supply diversification and inventory buffers, industry differentiation management, and real-time monitoring systems, which are essential for building a more robust and sustainable global tin trade network.