Structural Vulnerabilities and GHG Emissions in Ecuador’s Electricity Generation (2003–2024): A Diagnostic Approach

This research presents a comprehensive diagnosis of Ecuador’s electricity generation (2003–2024), focusing on structural vulnerabilities, fuel dependence, and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from electricity generation. The technological composition of the grid, including installed and effective capacity, as well as the share of fossil and organic fuels, is analyzed to construct a coherent analytical framework. GHGs (i.e., CO2, CH4, and N2O) are estimated from fuel consumption in Non-Conventional Renewable Energy (NCRE) and Non-Renewable Energy (NRE), in accordance with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Conversion to CO2 equivalent utilizes the AR5 GWP factors, in agreement with AR6. The results present annual series for each gas and their corresponding CO2 equivalents, showing that NREs dominate the CO2 profile, while NCREs contribute significantly to CH4 and N2O. Despite the expansion of installed capacity, a gap persists with effective capacity, reflecting the structural vulnerabilities of Ecuador’s electricity generation system, including exposure to hydrological variability (Kraftnōt, referring in this research to electricity shortages caused by reduced hydropower generation under adverse hydrological conditions), insufficient thermal backup, a high concentration of hydropower plants, fluctuating fossil fuel subsidies, and limited diversification. This manuscript provides a technical and quantitative basis using annual CO2, CH4, and N2O values and their CO2 equivalents to inform future decarbonization scenarios that strengthen NCRE integration within international climate commitments and a sustainable electricity transition.