Strategic Risk Assessment of High‐Speed Rail Development in India Using an Integrated SWOT –Fuzzy DEMATEL Framework

ABSTRACT

High‐speed rail (HSR) has emerged as a critical transportation infrastructure for improving regional connectivity and economic integration in rapidly developing economies, such as India. However, the implementation of HSR systems in India faces several technical, financial, environmental, and institutional challenges that must be addressed. These include costly initial investment requirements, lengthy land acquisition processes, high susceptibility to natural disasters (earthquakes and flooding), concerns about passenger safety management, and the complicated nature of the regulations governing HSR. To address the interrelated barriers to building HSR systems, an integrated SWOT–Fuzzy DEMATEL‐based risk assessment framework was developed that uses both SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis and fuzzy decision‐making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) methods. Twenty risk factors were identified through literature reviews and interviews with 12 transportation planning experts. Using fuzzy DEMATEL, the risk factor interactions were quantitatively modeled in terms of causality relationships, and priority rankings were assigned to each of the 20 factors based on their total net impact. The results shown that land use concentration at stations (W2) and engineering and environmental complexities (W3) are the two most dominant causal drivers influencing all other risk factors within the entire system. This innovative approach will be beneficial in enhancing risk mitigation techniques and improving infrastructure resiliency to support effective decision‐making and strategic planning for Indian policymakers and transportation planners who wish to develop sustainable HSR systems in the future. Furthermore, this framework can be easily scaled up or replicated to assist in evaluating sustainable HSR development options in other emerging economies.