Statistical models of Falcon 9 launch noise metrics at Vandenberg Space Force Base

The Falcon 9 Block 5 is the world's most frequently launched orbital rocket, with 165 launches in 2025 alone. This cadence enables robust characterization of launch noise from repeated field measurements. This study analyzes 548 acoustic measurements from 76 Falcon 9 launches at Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB), spanning pad-to-station distances from approximately 230 m to 30 km. Mixed-effects models are developed to describe maximum sound level (Lmax) and sound exposure level (SEL), including A- and C-weighted metrics, as functions of distance. Variability is modeled using a power-law variance structure, revealing increasing heteroskedasticity with distance. Prediction intervals derived from this structure quantify the range of expected individual measurements. Comparisons with Starship Super Heavy Flight 6 and launches from Florida suggest the model form is broadly applicable, though coefficients vary by vehicle. Additional analyses examine seasonal, diurnal, and terrain effects. Seasonal and diurnal effects are small for the present dataset, whereas terrain shielding can produce systematic reductions in level. Overall, this work provides a statistically grounded description of Falcon 9 launch noise and its variability and establishes a measured reference dataset for evaluation and future development of launch-noise prediction models.