State-Level Minimum Wage and Firearm Deaths Among Black Youth and Young Adults in the United States, 2000 to 2020

To elucidate potential economic pathways that may improve violence prevention among Black youth and young adults, we estimated the association of state minimum wage and annual firearm mortalities from 2000 to 2020 among Black individuals aged 10 to 34 using data from the National Vital Statistics System. Two-way fixed effects models were used to analyze the relationship between state minimum wage and overall firearm deaths, as well as firearm deaths by category, including homicide and suicide. Additionally, models were stratified by age group. We found that a $1 increase in state minimum wage was associated with a 5% decrease ( RR  = 0.95, 95% CI [0.92, 0.98]) in overall, annual firearm mortality and a 6% decrease ( RR  = 0.94 [0.91, 0.98]) in annual homicides caused by firearms, adjusted for covariates and state and year fixed effects. Our findings in overall and homicide mortalities held true across all age groups. For the association between minimum wage and suicide among Black youth and young adults, the results were roughly null overall ( RR  = 0.99 [0.96, 1.02]). These estimates, however, were not robust to additional analyses examining the plausibility of the parallel trends assumption. Re-estimation of models including 1- and 2-year leads and lags suggest that changes in firearm mortality preceded changes in the minimum wage. Thus, the decrease in firearm deaths is likely due to a myriad of socioeconomic shifts that coincide with, but were not directly caused by, minimum wage increases. This research emphasizes the importance of further evaluating the complex relationship between economic policies and firearm violence and prevention.