State-Adaptive and Tail-Risk-Aware Rolling Control of Wind–Solar–VRFB Systems with Experimentally Calibrated Power Envelopes

State-adaptive risk-aware rolling model predictive control (SA-RR-MPC) links experimentally calibrated battery action limits to grid-side tracking and ramp-risk costs in wind–solar–vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) regulation. Protocol-matched PNNL cycling observations supply power envelopes conditioned on a continuous charge reference and measured capacity, while Mendeley pressure–flow measurements supply the normalized pump-loss shape. Pump-corrected net injection connects admitted stack actions to scenario conditional value at risk (CVaR). A two-pass linear program selects dispatch requests, and current-state projection provides minimum-correction execution with an explicit bound on the resulting ramp-risk perturbation. Whole-cycle calibration checks give 89.95% Q90 coverage, and the local power labels change by at most 0.205% under the common charge-reference comparison. A causal 184-day NSRDB/WIND Toolkit replay evaluates a nominal 20 MW/80 MWh VRFB under common empirical-envelope and energy protection for all storage methods. SA-RR-MPC reduces realized ramp-exceedance CVaR90 by 40.94% and request-to-execution correction energy by 65.64% relative to Fixed-MPC, with a 0.54% increase in tracking RMSE. Relative to a matched risk-aware controller differing only in predictive power bounds, correction energy falls by 58.48%. Two nonoverlapping 28-day weather windows and three paired scenario seeds retain 27.06–50.01% CVaR90 reductions relative to Fixed-MPC. Paired module tests identify complementary roles in request adaptation, net-power prediction, and tail-risk valuation. The 95th-percentile serial software-loop time is 18.54 ms over 624 cycles after 48 warm-up steps.