Spatiotemporal Propagation and Future Risks of Agricultural Drought in Response to Meteorological Drought Across Asia

Abstract

Under the background of global warming, drought risk has intensified. Clarifying the changing patterns and response relationships of different drought types is vital for risk management and climate change adaptation. Using multi‐model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase VI (CMIP6) and an improved three‐dimensional clustering algorithm, this study identified meteorological and Agricultural drought (AD) events in Asia. We analyzed the spatiotemporal differentiation, migration patterns, and response relationships between the two drought types under different future Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results showed that, under the historical scenario, AD events outnumbered Meteorological drought (MD) events by 77 occurrences, while their average duration was 0.2 months shorter than that of meteorological droughts. The spatiotemporal correlation between meteorological and AD varied regionally, being strongest in Central Asia and southern East Asia, while weak or negative in North Asia and the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. Under future scenarios, from SSP1‐2.6 to SSP5‐8.5 scenario, meteorological droughts exhibited longer duration, and both types showed higher severity. The average duration of MD events increased from 2.3 to 3.9 months, and the average migration distance extended from 1,166.3 km to 2,650.4 km. The proportion of matched pairs in which MD preceded AD rose from 29% under SSP1‐2.6% to 60% under SSP5‐8.5. Under the scenarios of SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5, a model‐derived crossover between the fitted SPEI and SSMI trends occurs around 2058. These findings reveal the complex and transitive nature of future drought risk in Asia and provide a scientific basis for formulating targeted drought‐resistance strategies.