Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of New Agricultural Business Entities in Northeast China

Northeast China is one of China’s major commodity grain bases and plays a strategic role in national food security. Against the background of rural population outflow and agricultural modernization, new agricultural business entities (NABEs), including family farms, farmers’ cooperatives, and agribusinesses, have become important actors in reshaping agricultural production organization. Based on registration data for 2014, 2018, and 2023, this study uses kernel density estimation (KDE), standard deviational ellipse (SDE) analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of NABEs in Northeast China. The results show that: (1) NABEs expanded rapidly from 2014 to 2023 and became increasingly concentrated in agriculturally advantageous plain areas. (2) Family farms showed the fastest expansion, farmers’ cooperatives had the widest spatial coverage, and agribusinesses were mainly concentrated around transport corridors and market nodes. (3) In terms of industrial structure, crop-production entities remained dominant, followed by animal husbandry entities, while forestry, fishery, and agricultural support service entities accounted for relatively small shares; however, their numbers continued to increase. (4) The OLS results showed that the reclamation rate and road network density had relatively stable associations with the spatial distribution of multiple entity types, whereas economic development, science and technology investment, and fiscal support showed differentiated relationships across entity types and regions. (5) The MGWR results further reveal spatial heterogeneity in the effects of driving factors. These findings provide empirical evidence for type-specific cultivation and differentiated policy support for NABEs in major grain-producing areas.