Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of Synergistic Sustainable Intensification and Low-Carbon Utilization of Cultivated Land in Metropolitan Areas: A Case Study of the Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area

Sustainable cultivated land use is crucial for achieving SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 15 (Life on Land), and China’s dual-carbon goals. Rapid urbanization has compressed cultivated land space and reshaped agricultural functions, making it necessary to understand whether cultivated land intensification can be coordinated with low-carbon utilization. Taking the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area as a case, this study aims to reveal the coordination relationship between sustainable intensification of cultivated land use (SICLU) and cultivated land carbon emission efficiency (CEE) under rapid urbanization and identify the main factors driving their spatial differentiation. A combined modeling framework was used to measure SICLU and CEE. The coupling coordination degree model and quadrant model were then applied to analyze their coordination relationship and spatial matching types, while machine learning and structural equation modeling were used to identify potential driving factors. SICLU increased slightly from 0.74 to 0.76, showing a fluctuating and spatially uneven pattern. CEE first declined and then recovered to 0.95 in 2023, while high CEE values in highly urbanized districts were closely related to agricultural contraction and a low-emission base. SICLU-CEE coordination improved only moderately, with no county or district reaching good or excellent coordination. Quadrant analysis further revealed a stage-dependent spatial matching pattern, with CEE improving faster than SICLU in some areas by 2023. Urbanization, soil organic matter and population density were the main factors driving coordination differences. These findings provide evidence for differentiated cultivated land governance in rapidly urbanizing metropolitan areas.