Spatiotemporal Evolution, Dynamic Decomposition, and Driving Mechanisms of Green Total Factor Productivity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Green total factor productivity (GTFP) is an important indicator for assessing urban green development under resource and environmental constraints. Using panel data from 110 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2007 to 2023, this study examines changes in urban green total factor productivity. A super-efficiency slack-based measure model that includes undesirable outputs is adopted to measure GTFP, while the Malmquist–Luenberger index is used to decompose its dynamic changes. Spatial variation is then analyzed through trend surface analysis, center-of-gravity migration analysis, spatial pattern analysis, and the geographical detector model. The results indicate that GTFP in the Yangtze River Economic Belt improved on the whole, but its growth did not follow a smooth upward path. Among the decomposed effects, technological progress (TC) was the main source of improvement. Clear spatial differences were also observed. Cities in the middle and lower reaches generally had higher GTFP levels than those in the upper reaches, although this gap became less marked over time. The center of gravity of GTFP stayed mainly in the middle reaches and shifted gradually toward the northeast. The driving factors behind spatial differentiation were not constant. In the early stage, energy intensity and economic development level had stronger effects, whereas technological innovation, human capital, and industrial structure upgrading became more influential in the later stage. These findings provide empirical support for differentiated green development policies and coordinated regional governance in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.