Spatiotemporal Evolution and Formation Mechanisms of Shrinkage in Resource-Based Cities: A Push–Pull Theory Analysis of Shaoguan City, China

The shrinkage of resource-based cities presents a significant issue to global sustainable development. Shaoguan, recognized as the only nationally designated resource-exhausted city in Guangdong Province, China, is marked by industrial decline, proximity to a major metropolitan area, and strict ecological constraints. Using push–pull theory, this research develops a three-dimensional analytical framework that incorporates local, regional, and intermediate factors, with a particular focus on non-market influences such as policy support and ecological regulation. Utilizing diverse data sources, including statistical yearbook data, gridded population datasets, and nighttime light imagery, this study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban shrinkage and its underlying drivers in Shaoguan from 2000 to 2024. The results indicate that (1) Shaoguan exhibits a general trend of central growth and peripheral shrinkage, transitioning from perforated and ring-shaped shrinkage to punctate shrinkage, alongside increasing intra-city disparities; (2) the decline of traditional industries, restricted local employment opportunities, and improved transport connectivity to metropolitan regions serve as the main push factors, while tourism development, investment in science and technology, and industrial relocation provide only marginal pull effects; and (3) the strong siphonic effect of the Pearl River Delta, together with ecological constraints, produces a unique shrinkage mechanism in which the impacts of policy and ecological regulation fluctuate across different stages. This research broadens the application of push–pull theory to shrinking cities and provides empirical insights from the Global South. This research broadens the application of push–pull theory to shrinking cities and provides empirical insights from resource-based cities in southern China.