Spatiotemporal Evolution and Associated Factors of Land Use Carbon Emissions on Hainan Island, China

Land use reconfiguration can substantially alter regional carbon source–sink patterns, yet integrated evidence remains limited for spatially constrained island systems where development and ecological land are closely juxtaposed. Using Hainan Island (HI) as a case, this study applied an integrated analytical framework linking land use mix, coefficient-based land use carbon emission (LUCE) accounting, spatial redistribution, spatially varying associations, interaction detection, and decoupling analysis across 18 administrative units from 2000 to 2023. Estimated LUCEs increased more than sevenfold during the study period, with emission growth concentrated mainly in coastal development areas, while the interior remained comparatively low in emissions. The spatial distribution of LUCEs gradually expanded inland, and socioeconomic development, built-up land, terrain, and their interactions exhibited heterogeneous associations with LUCEs across the island. The decoupling relationship between land mixed use and LUCEs generally improved after 2005 but remained unstable in several coastal cities. These results indicate that island-wide LUCE evolution is characterized by spatially differentiated relationships between land development and ecological land configuration rather than by a uniform regional process. By integrating land use structure, coefficient-based carbon accounting, spatial redistribution, heterogeneity in factor associations, and decoupling within a common coast–interior framework, this study provides an analytical perspective that can support comparable land use carbon assessments in islands and coastal regions experiencing concentrated development and strong ecological constraints.