Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Carbon Balance Considering Multi‐Dimensional Urbanization Across 366 Cities in China

Abstract

Low‐carbon sustainable development has become essential for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goals. However, most existing carbon balance (CB) studies overlook carbon quota allocation that reflects development needs during urbanization, leading to assessments of urban low‐carbon development that may lack scientific rigour and fairness. This study integrates the three dimensions of economic urbanization, population urbanization, and spatial urbanization to construct a multi‐dimensional urban modified carbon balance (MCB) assessment framework and systematically calculates the CB and MCB of 366 cities in China. The results show that over the past 20 years, the gap between anthropogenic carbon emissions and ecological sequestration has continued to widen. Urban areas, accounting for the majority of emissions, exhibited an average annual emission growth rate of 15.4%, which contrasts sharply with the mere 1% average annual expansion observed in natural carbon sequestration capacity. The number of cities achieving CB decreased from 146 to 64. In addition, urban carbon quota demand was significantly correlated with multi‐dimensional urbanization levels. Under a carbon quota allocation mechanism that incorporates compensatory regulation, the number of cities meeting the MCB standard will increase significantly from 207 to 231. This study provides a fairer reference for assessing low‐carbon development in cities.