Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Climatic Attribution of Natural Lake Extremes Across China’s Major Urban Agglomerations (2001–2023)

Natural lakes in urbanizing regions face compounding climatic and anthropogenic pressures. Despite their socio-ecological importance, the dual vulnerability of these urban lakes to both long-term areal shrinkage and the shifting frequencies of extreme water events remains a critical research gap, often overlooked in favor of large, remote lake systems. We investigated surface area dynamics, extreme events, and climatic attribution of 7320 natural lakes across China’s five major urban agglomerations (Jing-Jin-Ji, Yangtze River Delta, Greater Bay Area, Chengdu-Chongqing, and Middle Yangtze) from 2001 to 2023. Using a satellite area product, we assessed long-term trends via Seasonal-Trend decomposition by Loess (STL). Regional climate shifts were detected via multi-scale Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) breakpoint analysis, and climate attribution was performed by correlating detrended lake areas with SPEI. Results show 59.4% of lakes exhibit significant trends, with shrinkage (50%) vastly outpacing expansion (9.4%), most severely in Jing-Jin-Ji (−0.28%/year). Despite all agglomerations transitioning toward wetter conditions (2008–2013), extreme event responses diverged markedly regionally. Climate-driven lakes (14.5%) displayed stronger shrinkage and greater sensitivity to extremes than lakes with low climate sensitivity, particularly in Jing-Jin-Ji and Chengdu-Chongqing. These findings reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in urban lake vulnerability, providing an evidence base for sensitivity-stratified management strategies.