Spatiotemporal Distribution and Health Risk of PM2.5 in the Urban Belt Around the Tarim Basin, China

The Taklamakan Desert, the primary source of sand and dust in China, has a significant impact on PM2.5 concentrations in the urban belt around the Tarim Basin. In this study, moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) images and machine learning algorithms were used to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and analyze deaths from ischemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer (LC), and stroke (STK) attributed to PM2.5. From 2015 to 2024, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) showed a decreasing trend, and the spatial distribution pattern gradually increased from west to east. The counties and cities with higher average PM2.5 concentrations during the 2024 dust-prone season were Awati County, Alar City, Moyu County, and Aksu City, with average concentrations of 89.7 μg/m3, 88.8 μg/m3, 86.0 μg/m3, and 84.1 μg/m3, respectively. PM2.5 concentrations during the non-dust season were significantly lower (approximately 50%) than those during the dust-prone season. Among the four major fatal diseases, STK and IHD accounted for the majority of attributable deaths, with proportions exceeding 80% of the total. The results show that PM2.5 concentrations can be accurately monitored over a large scale, addressing the shortage of fixed monitoring stations, and providing a theoretical basis for sustainable development of ecological environment, health-risk management and control in the urban belt around the Tarim Basin.