Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Photovoltaic Expansion at the Township Scale: A Case Study of Xintai, China

Rapid growth in photovoltaic (PV) development has intensified competition between renewable energy expansion and land resources, highlighting the importance of integrating PV growth with spatial planning toward carbon neutrality. This study addresses the lack of township-level evidence by integrating spatio-temporal analysis, the Optimal Parameter Geodetector (OPGD), and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to investigate the evolution, driving mechanisms, and future spatial patterns of PV development. Taking Xintai City as a case study, this research examines PV development from 2010 to 2022 and simulates future spatial patterns under natural development (ND) and carbon neutrality (CN) scenarios. Results show that PV development entered a rapid expansion stage after 2015, characterized by leapfrog growth and increasing spatial agglomeration. The centroid of PV patches shifted eastward, whereas the centroid of PV area migrated westward, indicating differentiated spatial evolution between the number and scale of PV facilities. PV development was jointly shaped by climatic conditions, socioeconomic factors, and land availability, with interactions among multiple factors substantially enhancing spatial heterogeneity. Scenario simulations revealed that PV development continued under both scenarios, while the CN scenario promoted more concentrated expansion in coal subsidence areas and inefficient industrial and mining lands, thereby helping alleviate potential conflicts with cultivated land protection. These findings highlight the importance of prioritizing low-conflict land resources and strengthening spatial coordination between renewable energy development and land management to support sustainable low-carbon development in resource-based cities.