Spatial Planning Drivers Associated with Perceived Fire Risk in Informal Settlements: Evidence from Mopani District, South Africa

Rapid urbanisation in developing countries has contributed to the growth of informal settlements characterised by inadequate infrastructure, poor construction practices, and heightened disaster exposure. This study examines the spatial planning drivers of perceived fire risk in informal settlements in Mopani District, South Africa. Household survey data from 605 respondents, supported by key-informant interviews, were analysed using binary logistic regression. The model examined the associations between perceived fire risk and settlement patterns, environmental and climatic stress, poor building methods, inadequate administrative capacity, municipality, and length of stay. Perceived fire risk was identified by 46.6% of households. The regression model was statistically significant (χ2 = 98.992, p < 0.001) and demonstrated acceptable fit and discriminatory ability. Poor building methods were the strongest modifiable predictor: a one-standard-deviation increase more than doubled the odds of perceived fire risk (OR = 2.10). Municipality-specific differences were also pronounced. Relative to Greater Tzaneen, households in Greater Giyani had seven times the odds of perceived fire risk (OR = 7.14), while households in Ba-Phalaborwa had roughly half the odds (OR = 0.50). Settlement patterns, environmental and climatic stress, and length of stay were not statistically significant. The findings indicate that perceived fire risk was most strongly associated with poor building methods and municipality-specific spatial variation. The study reframes fire vulnerability as a spatial planning and settlement-upgrading issue requiring proactive, targeted, and implementation-focused urban risk reduction strategies.