Spatial Patterns, Driving Forces, and Potential Grain Losses of Non‐Grain Production of Farmland in Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, China

ABSTRACT

The expansion of farmland non‐grain production (NGP) poses a potential threat to food security and agricultural land protection, particularly in mountainous urban agglomerations. However, the utilization patterns, driving mechanisms, and associated production‐loss effects of farmland NGP in this specific regional context remain insufficiently understood, creating substantial challenges for NGP governance. Therefore, using data from China's Third National Land Survey, this study develops an analytical framework to systematically examine the spatial patterns, driving factors, and potential grain losses associated with farmland NGP in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration (CYUA). The results show that farmland NGP is widespread in CYUA and exhibits pronounced regional differentiation. The utilization model, which is primarily focused on the industrial‐structure‐oriented NGP (ISNGP), will lead to the loss of arable land and the destruction of the arable layer. The “core‐periphery” spatial pattern presented by NGP is influenced by both direct land competition and indirect socio‐economic transformation brought about by urbanization. The NGP in the CYUA is not a homogeneous process but rather a heterogeneous process nested and regulated by the triple mechanisms of “topographic constraints, economic drivers, and agent responses.” Based on the regional average yield, NGP would reduce the potential grain‐sown area by 24.44%, resulting in a potential grain‐production loss of 308.81 × 10 ⁴   t , which could theoretically feed 7.7204 million people. We recommend differentiated NGP governance strategies by type and region and propose that the impact of NGP on grain output should be treated as a key criterion in NGP management. This study provides the first comprehensive and closed‐loop analysis of regional farmland NGP, ranging from pattern identification to governance strategy formulation. The proposed typology and region‐specific governance recommendations provide targeted scientific support for addressing farmland NGP and safeguarding regional food security.