Spatial Patterns and Associated Factors of Ecological Resilience Across Urban–Rural Catchments in the Urumqi Metropolitan Area

Understanding ecological resilience (ER) across urban–rural gradients is important for differentiated management in arid metropolitan areas. Using 2 km grid data for 2013, 2018, and 2023, this study delineated travel-time-based urban–rural catchments in the Urumqi Metropolitan Area. The optimal-parameter Geodetector and multiscale geographically weighted regression were used to examine global explanatory patterns and local ER–factor associations, while spatially constrained clustering identified management types. The results showed that (1) mean ER values were 0.49, 0.50, and 0.48, respectively. ER was lower in urban centers and higher in rural areas and hinterlands. Compared with 2013, ER in 2023 was higher in urban centers and peri-urban regions but lower in rural areas and hinterlands. (2) Socioeconomic factors were more prominent in urban centers and peri-urban regions, whereas rural areas exhibited temporally variable natural and socioeconomic patterns. Elevation and soil organic matter were more prominent in hinterlands, and factor interactions were predominantly characterized by bi-factor or nonlinear enhancement. (3) Local ER–factor associations varied in direction, magnitude, and spatial scale. Negative associations with nighttime light intensity, road density, and built-up land proportion were concentrated in more urbanized areas. (4) Overlaying four spatial clusters with four catchment categories produced 16 integrated management types. These units provide a spatial basis for differentiated ecological management and regional planning in the Urumqi Metropolitan Area.