Spatial Inequality and Infrastructure-Based Carbon Lock-In in Green Logistics: Evidence from China

The logistics industry remains a critical bottleneck for decarbonization due to its extensive physical networks and high-carbon path dependencies. To address the spatial heterogeneity and transition constraints in the logistics industry of China, this study proposes a Performance–Topology–Mechanism (PTM) framework. Analyzing panel data from 30 Chinese provinces, we integrate a Super-SBM model with the Global Malmquist–Luenberger (GML) index, Dagum Gini decomposition, and a panel Tobit model to decode the spatiotemporal dynamics of green innovation performance (GIP) and its underlying spatial lock-in mechanisms. The results reveal a steady but spatially uneven increase in the national GIP (from 0.4526 to 0.5724), characterized by a leading East and a lagging West/Northeast. GML decomposition indicates this growth is predominantly driven by outward shifts in the technological frontier rather than efficiency improvements, highlighting the weak spatial conversion of green technologies into transport optimization. Topological tracing demonstrates that inter-regional disparities have become the dominant source of spatial inequality, with their contribution rising from 60% to 75%. Spatial autocorrelation further exposes a deepening core–periphery polarization and persistent low-performance spatial lock-in. Crucially, the mechanism analysis identifies a pronounced infrastructure-based carbon lock-in. While economic capacity and green patents stimulate GIP, road network density exerts a significant negative effect, reflecting a systemic path dependence on high-carbon road freight. The findings suggest that decarbonizing transport logistics requires shifting from singular technological investments toward multimodal transport restructuring, overcoming physical network dependencies, and promoting the regional diffusion of green innovations. These findings provide an empirical basis for differentiated green-logistics policies, coordinated low-carbon transport infrastructure planning, and cross-regional diffusion of green technologies.