Spatial Evolution Intensity and Cultural-Ecological Pathways in Residential Historic Districts: A Case Study of the Barkhor Historic Area, Lhasa

Residential historic districts face simultaneous pressures from tourism development, functional transformation, and the need to sustain everyday community life. Taking the Barkhor Historic Area in Lhasa as a case study, this study integrates GIS-based spatial analysis, GeoDetector, resident questionnaires, and semi-structured interviews within an environment–culture–people framework. Spatial evolution intensity (SEI) was examined for 1960–1980, 1980–2000, and 2000–2022, while GeoDetector analysis was restricted to 2000–2022 to examine the explanatory power of recent cultural-ecological factors for spatial differentiation in SEI during this period. The results show that high-SEI areas shifted from peripheral clustering to dispersed local nodes and then to a more pronounced multi-centered pattern. For 2000–2022, GeoDetector results showed generally modest explanatory power for individual cultural-ecological factors, while factor combinations exhibited higher joint explanatory power. Questionnaire results, interviews, and field observations further revealed the continued presence of religious practices and everyday residential life alongside the adaptive incorporation of new commercial and community-service functions. Based on these combined findings, three cultural-ecological pathways are proposed: cultural anchoring, functional embedding, and life maintenance. Accordingly, the study proposes a holistic conservation approach combining refined spatial identification and differentiated management, adaptive functional renewal, and sustained resident participation through multi-stakeholder governance, with the aim of coordinating cultural continuity, everyday residential life, and ongoing spatial change.