Spatial Coupling Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Population–Land–Housing Based on Multi-Source Data: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China

Against the backdrop of the transition of new-type urbanization towards high-quality development, the triple contradictions of population agglomeration, land constraints, and housing supply-demand imbalance have become increasingly prominent. The conventional binary framework of human–land relations can no longer meet the requirements of coordinated development within human settlement systems, creating an urgent need to examine the multi-system interactions among population, land, and housing in order to resolve spatial mismatch. Taking Guangzhou as a case study, this research integrates 2020 population census data, land-use data from the European Space Agency (ESA), housing-price data from the Anjuke platform, and multi-source data on related influencing factors, and conducts a systematic empirical analysis by combining coupling coordination analysis, a relative development model, and the geographical detector. The findings reveal that the coupling coordination level of population, land and housing in Guangzhou exhibits a concentric, ring-shaped distribution pattern with central agglomeration and peripheral decline. The relative development among the three systems can be classified into matching types including the core-differentiated type, the peripheral-imbalanced type, and the surrounding-equilibrium type. With respect to influencing factors, all pairwise interactions are of the bi-factor enhancement type, and the driving mechanism displays a three-stage dynamic evolution. This study enriches research on human–land relations, provides precise guidance for optimizing spatial allocation and alleviating housing mismatch conflicts in Guangzhou, and offers transferable practical experience for comparable cities in China seeking to advance the high-quality development of new-type urbanization.