Spatial Coupling Between the Greenhouse-Oriented Transformation of Cultivated Land and Low-Carbon Agricultural Emission Performance and Its Associated Factors

Investigating the coordination between greenhouse-oriented cultivated-land transformation and low-carbon agricultural emission performance is important for optimizing land use and advancing agricultural decarbonization. Using data for 31 mainland Chinese provinces in 2010, 2016, and 2022, this study constructs corresponding indices and examines their relationship using a coupling coordination model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, fixed-effects estimation, and a spatial Durbin model. The results show that greenhouse-oriented transformation increased but remained regionally uneven, with higher levels concentrated in eastern and northern coastal regions. The interprovincial mean of standardized agricultural carbon-emission intensity increased from 0.3225 in 2010 to 0.3557 in 2016, representing a 10.29% rise, before declining to 0.3279 in 2022—7.83% below the 2016 level but 1.66% above the 2010 level. Coupling coordination improved initially and subsequently entered a period of adjustment and convergence, while remaining predominantly low to moderate. It also exhibited significant positive spatial clustering. Rural economic development was negatively associated with local coordination, whereas population density showed a positive but model-sensitive association, and the urban–rural income gap produced limited spillover effects. The spatial autoregressive coefficient was insignificant. Facility-agriculture policies should therefore prioritize quality improvement, clean energy, input reduction, and resource efficiency rather than continued scale expansion.