Spatial Coupling Between Cropland Loss and Rural Settlement Expansion in China’s Major Grain-Producing Region

Cropland and rural settlements are core components of rural human–environment systems, and their coordinated development is crucial for regional sustainability, particularly in China’s major agricultural production regions. Taking the Huang-Huai-Hai region as the study area, this study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of cropland and its coupling relationship with rural settlements using land use data from 1990 to 2020. Grid-based analysis and multiple spatial modeling methods were employed. The results show that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the cropland in the region decreased by a net total of 21,021.94 km2, with annual dynamic degrees ranging from −0.13% to −0.28%. Cropland conversion to other land uses far exceeded conversion from others, with construction land being the primary destination. Among these, rural settlements and urban construction land accounted for 43.75% and 55.58% of the total cropland loss, respectively. (2) The spatial distribution of cropland exhibited a distinct pattern of “hot in the center and south, cold in the periphery and north” (Moran’s I = 0.232, p < 0.001), indicating significant positive spatial autocorrelation. Hot spot areas clustered in the North China Plain and the Huang-Huai Plain, while cold spot areas were distributed in the Yanshan–Taihang mountains and the hilly regions of the Shandong Peninsula, clearly controlled by topography. (3) Cropland change exhibited stage-specific characteristics. The pattern was relatively stable during 1990–2000. During 2000–2010, cropland conversion to other uses intensified, with high-value conversion areas concentrated around urban agglomerations. In the 2010–2020 period, these high-value conversion areas diffused from the core plain areas to urban fringe zones. (4) The spatial coupling between cropland and rural settlements was predominantly characterized by the Moderately Coordinated Type (MCT), accounting for 48.38–58.44% of the area. However, the proportion of Rural Settlement-Dominant Type (RC) increased from 15.51% to 21.58%, indicating a trend toward intensifying human–environment conflicts. Overall, the Huang-Huai-Hai region experienced significant cropland changes. While its spatial pattern remains relatively stable, the coupling relationship between cropland and rural settlements is deteriorating, posing challenges to regional food security and rural sustainable development.