Societal perturbation output waves: A framework for crisis-driven publication bursts

Major societal disruptions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can abruptly redirect scientific attention, generating exceptional publication bursts and information overload. Annual Web of Science trajectories for coronavirus and Ebola research between 2001 and 2025 reveal a recurrent wave-like pattern characterized by rapid activation, peak productivity, subsequent contraction, and renewed growth following later outbreaks. I propose the concept of Societal Perturbation Output Waves (SPOWs) to describe these event-driven trajectories and interpret them in relation to Derek John de Solla Price's account of oscillations in scientific growth. Unlike isolated publication bursts, SPOWs are conceived as complete trajectories in which successive perturbations occur within scientific domains already transformed by previous events. Each wave can alter search workloads, evidence-synthesis priorities, collection decisions, and the interpretation of bibliometric indicators. Recognizing these dynamics may improve preparedness for future disruptive events and support more realistic management of rapidly changing information environments.