Small Midges, Major Consequences: Partial Declines in Cocoa Pollination and Their Economic Impact in West Africa and Beyond

ABSTRACT

Cocoa production forms the backbone of West Africa's agricultural economy, sustaining smallholder farmers whose livelihoods depend on stable yields. Critical to these yields is the provision of pollination services by a few key species, notably, the minuscule Forcipomyia spp. While many studies have modeled the effects of complete pollinator collapse, the impacts of gradual declines remain little studied. In this study, we develop an integrated ecological–economic model that links pollinator abundance with cocoa yield, incorporating the global cocoa market and an economy‐wide framework for Ghana, one of the world's major cocoa producers. We examine scenarios in which declines in pollinator populations occur at regional, national, and supranational scales. Our analysis reveals that localized declines in pollinator populations detrimentally affect cocoa farmers and Ghana's national economy, with rural communities and low‐income households bearing a disproportionate share of the welfare losses. In contrast, widespread declines across West Africa trigger a “King effect” where rising global cocoa prices partially mitigate production losses, benefiting farmers while overall consumer surplus declines. These results highlight the necessity of conserving pollinator biodiversity to safeguard cocoa production and economic welfare at multiple scales.