Simulation and Evaluation of the Comprehensive Transport Capacity of a River-to-Sea Transshipment System in Tidal Waters: A Case Study of the Morebaya Waterway System

Comprehensive transport capacity in a tidal river-to-sea transshipment system depends on the coupled effects of fleet composition, berth service, tidal windows, shared-fairway access, and traffic organization. This study combines mechanistic screening with an AnyLogic discrete-event model and a non-compensatory, run-level evaluation framework for the Morebaya waterway system. Twenty-seven scenarios were evaluated using 30 distinct master random seeds per scenario, yielding 810 run-level records. D4 and D3 had the highest mean total throughputs, 163.3928 and 144.6116 Mt·a−1, respectively, but both operator-specific targets were met in only 13/30 D4 runs and 10/30 D3 runs. By contrast, C6–C13 met both operator-specific tasks and the available project-scope resource criteria in all 30 runs, forming the project-scope acceptable candidate set under the stated criteria. C6 had the highest sample mean within this set, 142.5484 Mt·a−1, but its same-seed paired difference relative to C12 was 1.1255 Mt·a−1 (95% confidence interval: −0.0905 to 2.3415; Holm-adjusted p=0.5471). The available evidence therefore does not support selecting a single preferred scenario from this candidate set. Across the tested threshold grid, project-scope classifications changed with the permitted task-shortfall tolerance but not with the examined project ore-barge C–D equivalent time-occupancy ratio or berth ResourcePool thresholds. The acceptable candidate set can be carried forward for subsequent comparison considering fleet availability, operating period, cost, resilience, and navigational safety. The C–D indicator excludes A1 background traffic and control-related losses, and the ResourcePool metric is a berth busy-time fraction rather than a demand-to-capacity ratio; complete-system capacity therefore remains outside the present evidence boundary.