Silver Flows and In-Use Stocks in China’s Photovoltaic Module Fleet: A Dynamic Material Flow Analysis for Sustainable Resource Management and End-of-Life Recovery Potential

Photovoltaic (PV) deployment in China has accumulated silver in long-lived crystalline silicon modules, yet the timing and scale of its end-of-life (EOL) release remain uncertain. This study develops a cohort-based dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) for PV modules installed in China during 2000–2025 and projects silver flows to 2060. Technology-specific pure-silver intensities are reconstructed from cell dimensions and efficiency, paste consumption, metallization composition, and technology shares. Weibull lifetime distributions are used to compare four module lifetime scenarios, while four recovery rate pathways assess the effect of recovery capacity timing. Parameter uncertainty is examined using Latin-hypercube Monte Carlo simulation. From 2018 to 2025, technology-weighted pure-silver intensity fell by 62.0% (from 23.33 to 8.86 mg/W), whereas annual installation silver inflow rose by 170.4% (from 1149.66 to 3108.88 t). Under the baseline lifetime scenario, EOL silver flow peaks at 739.34 t/yr in 2044, nine years before retired capacity peaks in 2053. At the end of 2025, the in-use stock reached 17,784.12 t, equivalent to 99.5% of cumulative installation inflow. Cumulative potentially recoverable silver during 2025–2060 ranges from 3606.94 to 15,335.65 t across the specified recovery scenarios. Module lifetime primarily determines release timing, whereas silver intensity affects the magnitude of release. By linking silver stock accumulation, end-of-life release, and recovery capacity timing, this study provides a quantitative basis for sustainable resource management and circular economy planning in China’s photovoltaic sector.