Shut-In Pressure Evolution and Surface-Pressure-Based Screening of Upper-Loss–Lower-Kick Scenarios

Upper-loss and lower-kick (UL–LK) events may occur in ultra-deep fractured carbonate formations when gas enters from a lower high-pressure zone while drilling fluid is lost to an upper low-pressure fracture. Because both flows can continue after shut-in, the wellbore remains incompletely closed. This study develops a transient wellbore-formation pressure model based on phase mass conservation and global volume balance, and introduces an effective gas–liquid partition coefficient to represent phase separation at the fracture inlet. The model shows that circulation loss limits bottomhole-pressure recovery, allowing gas influx to persist after shut-in. Relative to kick-only conditions, UL–LK conditions have a lower initial shut-in casing pressure (SICP) but a steeper subsequent buildup. A smaller partition coefficient, corresponding to preferential liquid loss, leaves more free gas in the wellbore and further increases the SICP buildup rate. A surface-pressure-based screening method was developed from contrasting SICP and shut-in drillpipe pressure (SIDPP) responses. When applied to five field cases, the method correctly identified three UL–LK cases and two kick-only cases. Its outcomes for five field cases agreed with the field interpretations. This framework supports post-shut-in pressure prediction and rapid screening without dedicated downhole measurements.