Short‐Term Risk Stratification in Alcohol‐Associated Hepatitis: Small
HDL
Particles and Inflammation Vulnerability Index Values Improve Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease
Eduardo Vilar‐Gomez, Margery A. Connelly, Vijay H. Shah, Irina Shalaurova, Jill M. Rafalko, Arun J. Sanyal, Naga P. Chalasani, Samer Gawrieh, ABSTRACT
Background
Alcohol‐associated hepatitis (AH) has high short‐term mortality, whereas current prognostic models mainly reflect liver and renal dysfunction. The Metabolic Vulnerability Index (MVX) is a nuclear magnetic resonance‐derived score comprising the Inflammation Vulnerability Index (IVX; small high‐density lipoprotein particles [S‐HDL‐P] and GlycA) and the Metabolic Malnutrition Index (MMX). We evaluated whether MVX, IVX, and IVX components improve 90‐day mortality prediction beyond Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease (MELD) in AH.
Methods
Serum samples from 196 patients with AH, 169 heavy‐drinking controls, and 351 healthy controls were analyzed by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The primary outcome was 90‐day AH‐related mortality. Biomarkers were modeled continuously after standardization within the AH cohort; S‐HDL‐P was modeled per 1 SD decrease. Cox models were adjusted for MELD, age, sex, white blood cell count, and baseline antibiotic or corticosteroid use. Model performance was assessed using Akaike information criterion (AIC), likelihood‐ratio testing, and Harrell's C ‐statistic.
Results
Among patients with AH, 30 AH‐related deaths occurred within 90 days (15.3%). IVX and MVX were highest in AH cases and increased with AH severity, whereas MMX did not consistently differentiate severity. Lower S‐HDL‐P was independently associated with 90‐day mortality in fully adjusted models (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.01–3.35; p = 0.045), whereas GlycA was not (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.54–1.37; p = 0.527). Adding S‐HDL‐P improved fully adjusted MELD‐based model fit (AIC, 298.97 vs. 301.46; LR p = 0.034; C ‐statistic, 0.741 vs. 0.729). IVX showed supportive improvement in model fit and discrimination (AIC, 299.81; LR p = 0.056; C ‐statistic, 0.749). Continuous MELD interaction analyses supported risk separation for S‐HDL‐P (LR χ 2 = 6.20; p = 0.045) and IVX (LR χ 2 = 6.64; p = 0.036).
Conclusions
Lower S‐HDL‐P appears to be the principal short‐term prognostic component within the IVX domain in AH. S‐HDL‐P and IVX may refine MELD‐based 90‐day risk stratification, pending external validation.