Short-Term Climate Variability and Its Association with Dengue Transmission in the Southern United States

Dengue fever has re-emerged in parts of the Southern United States (U.S.), raising concerns about how short-term climate variability may influence transmission risk. This ecological study evaluates whether changes in mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation between 2020 and 2024 were associated with shifts in dengue incidence across seven Southern U.S. states. Dengue case data were obtained from CDC ArboNET, and climate data from NOAA monitoring systems. Incidence rates were standardized using U.S. Census population estimates, and associations were assessed using Spearman’s rank correlation and longitudinal mixed-effects models. All study states experienced increases in mean annual temperature over the five-year period, while precipitation patterns varied. Dengue incidence rose across all states, with Florida showing the most substantial increase. Moderate correlations were observed between temperature change and dengue incidence (rs = 0.54) and between precipitation change and dengue incidence (rs = 0.71), though neither reached statistical significance. Longitudinal mixed-effects models identified a statistically significant positive association between temperature and both cumulative incidence and locally acquired incidence. These findings suggest that modest short-term climate shifts may be associated with variations in dengue dynamics in the Southern U.S., underscoring the need for expanded surveillance and longer-term analyses to better characterize these emerging vector-borne disease risks.