Short-Run Price Elasticity of Demand for Public Transit in Belo Horizonte, Brazil: Evidence from a 2023 Fare Cut

I estimate the short-run price elasticity of demand for public transit in Belo Horizonte, Brazil using monthly system reports between January 2022 and March 2026, exploiting a 25 percent fare cut on Trunk lines in July 2023 with Circular and Feeder lines as control. The line-level panel with clustered inference and a three-month event study (parallel pre-trends validated, p=0.87) yield a robust estimate near -0.20 across specifications. Heterogeneity across service types is substantial: bus rapid transit responds at -0.42, while diametrical lines carrying over a third of ridership are essentially inelastic at -0.03.