Shifting Futures: Trends in Socioeconomic Disparities in Adolescents’ Expected Occupational Status in the United States and the United Kingdom, 2000–2018

Using data from the Programme for International Student Assessment 2000–2018, this study examined trends in adolescents’ expected occupational status, socioeconomic status (SES) gradients, and distributional SES differentials in the United States and the United Kingdom. Guided by Turner’s distinction between contest and sponsored mobility systems, we found rising occupational expectations in both countries. SES gradients remained relatively stable in the United States but weakened in the United Kingdom, although this decline became less pronounced after accounting for academic achievement. Distributional analyses revealed persistent upper-end SES compression in the United States and narrowing upper-end gaps in the United Kingdom. Cross-national differences diminished over time, highlighting the role of mobility regimes and institutional contexts in shaping occupational expectations.