Sea-level rise drives unequal erosion of global ecosystem service value

Abstract

Sea-level rise (SLR) is rapidly reshaping coastal ecosystems, yet its global implications for ecosystem-service value (ESV) remain poorly quantified. Here, we assess global ESV exposure to SLR under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), integrating IPCC AR6 projections with detailed valuation modeling over 2030–2100. Across the five SSP-aligned SLR pathways, annual income-adjusted ESV losses attributable to SLR in 2100 range from 130.06 billion Int$2020yr−1 under SSP3-7.0 to 339.41 billion Int$2020yr−1 under SSP5-8.5. While impervious surface and croplands together account for approximately 59–60% of global absolute losses by 2100 across pathways, wetlands suffer the greatest relative losses (1.21% under SSP1-1.9 vs. 2.20% under SSP5-8.5). Crucially, we reveal a systemic mismatch between historical per-capita carbon responsibility and future per-capita ESV loss. Although absolute losses are concentrated in large countries such as China and the United States, low-responsibility small island and deltaic states face disproportionately high relative declines. This inequity is evident across scenarios: by 2100, the ESV injustice index ranges from 0.450 under SSP3-7.0 to 0.593 under SSP5-8.5, with a value of 0.500 under the intermediate SSP2-4.5 pathway. Our results pinpoint hotspots of natural-capital erosion, providing a vital quantitative basis for adaptation prioritization and loss-and-damage negotiations.