Scenario Thinking as a Process of Shaping the Future-Oriented Worldview

This article examines the evolution of scenario thinking from its mythological and philosophical roots to its consolidation as a cognitive and institutional discipline within contemporary social sciences. Drawing on archetypal structures, analytical traditions (Kahn, Schelling), and managerial practices (Wack, Schwartz, van der Heijden), the study traces how scenarios have evolved from hypothetical sequences of events (“scenario”) into a broader intellectual framework (“scenario thinking”) and, ultimately, into an integrative worldview (“scenario worldview”). Methodologically, the research integrates cultural, cognitive, and strategic perspectives, emphasizing the role of multi-layered representations of the world – perceptual, apperceptive, semantic, and metaphysical – in shaping collective visions of the future. Special attention is devoted to recent developments such as the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) and turbulent–uncertain–novel–ambiguous (TUNA) models, results-based management, and decision-making under deep uncertainty, which illustrate the institutionalization and experimental validation of scenario practices. The article also analyzes the role of artificial intelligence in enhancing scenario generation, while underscoring the irreplaceable contribution of human intuition, ethics, and symbolic integration in forming scenario worldviews. The findings suggest that the central challenge for futures research lies not in producing increasingly sophisticated forecasts, but in cultivating scenario worldviews as ontological frameworks that bring together imagination, scientific analysis, and collective sense-making to navigate deep uncertainty.