Scarring the Life Course: Early Career Precarity and Long-Term Fertility Outcomes in Japan

This study examines the long-term fertility scarring associated with nonstandard employment upon labor market entry in Japan, country characterized by dualized labor market and rigid gender norms. Analyses of retrospective occupational history data including work entry cohorts 1970–2015 with multistate life-table models indicate that early career disadvantages correlate with lower long-term fertility outcomes, especially for men. Compared to those in standard employment, men whose first job was nonstandard employment were approximately 18% points less likely to have married and 14% points less likely to have had a child by age 45. These disparities linked to nonstandard employment have increased significantly among cohorts entering the labor market after Japan’s economic downturn. Counterfactual estimates suggest that delayed or foregone marriage accounts for about one-third of the fertility penalty among men with early precarious employment. These results underscore how early labor market precarity leaves long-term demographic and social scars, especially within gender-inegalitarian contexts.