Satellite evidence of unequal basin-scale recovery from severe droughts

Abstract

Severe droughts deplete terrestrial water storage, jeopardizing ecosystems and human well-being. Yet, the pace and extent to which large river basins recover from such events remain unknown at the global scale. Here, integrating GRACE/FO water storage observations with state-of-the-art water availability estimates, we disentangle hydrological recovery following 468 basin-scale severe droughts with discernible impacts globally from 2003 to 2025. Recovery to pre-drought conditions is widespread but uneven across basins and events, with persistent deficits disproportionately concentrated in drylands or endorheic basins. Where recovery occurs, trajectories are highly variable and nonlinear, ranging from rapid and steady recovery to delayed responses. These dynamics are strongly modulated by post-drought water availability, while persistent deficits are further associated with recurrent severe droughts and intensive human water use. Our findings reveal global inequalities in drought recovery and underscore the need for region-specific strategies to manage water scarcity under accelerating climate change and rising water demand.