Satellite-Derived Chlorophyll-a Phenology and Recurrent High-Chl-a Exceedance Screening in Fujian Coastal Bays, China

Long-term chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) phenology and recurrent high-Chl-a conditions provide important evidence for identifying spatially persistent water-quality concerns in coastal bays. However, seasonally normalized screening of high-Chl-a recurrence at the sampling-cell scale remains limited for subtropical multi-bay coastlines, where regional monsoon forcing, hydrodynamic retention, riverine inputs, aquaculture, and coastal development jointly shape phytoplankton variability. Based on Copernicus Marine ocean-colour records from 2003 to 2024, this study developed a reproducible ~4 km sampling-cell framework for seven coastal bays in Fujian, China. Monthly geometric-mean climatologies, phenological metrics, P90-based high-Chl-a exceedance frequencies, monitoring-priority classes, and exploratory machine-learning diagnostics were derived. Bay-scale phenology showed clear divergence: Sansha and Xinghua Bays exhibited winter or year-end Chl-a enhancement, Xiamen Bay peaked in summer, and Quanzhou Bay reached an early-autumn maximum. Four seasonal phenological regimes further revealed cell-scale heterogeneity, with C2 representing winter-enhanced, high-amplitude cycles and C3 identifying cells with the most frequent seasonally normalized high-Chl-a exceedances. High- and moderate-priority cells were concentrated mainly in Sansha and Xinghua Bays, whereas Dongshan and Quanzhou Bays showed only localized priority cells. Exploratory diagnostics indicated that distance to the bay mouth was the most important correlate of recurrent high-Chl-a susceptibility, suggesting the role of bay-scale exchange and retention gradients. This framework converts long-term ocean-colour archives into spatially explicit phenological and anomaly-screening evidence to support targeted coastal water-quality monitoring and ecosystem management.