Safeguarding Cost-Effective and Risk-Mitigated Chemical Decarbonization by Diversified Energy Supply

Abstract

Wind and solar power are widely regarded as the primary energy sources for chemical decarbonization, yet their spatial mismatch with production hubs poses inherent challenges. Locally available hydropower, nuclear power, and biomass offer promising alternatives. Using a spatially explicit model with endogenous optimization of industrial spatial configuration, we show that diversified energy supply safeguards cost-effective and risk-mitigated chemical decarbonization in China, compared to the prevailing wind–solar-dominated strategies. By 2060, the annualized cost of chemical sector is reduced by 218 billion CNY (0.22% of China’s 2020 GDP), and the marginal abatement cost declines from 3160 to 1401 CNY/t, making net-zero emissions more economically feasible. Deployment requirements for critical-metal-intensive electrolyzers and energy storage technologies decline by 46.5% and 63.7%, respectively, and the still-immature direct air capture with utilization becomes largely unnecessary. Moreover, the potential stranded coal-based chemical capacity declines from 16.9 GW to 1.55 GW, and the chemical-sector contractions in Henan, Guizhou, and Chongqing are avoided, primarily through biomass-based methanol expansion. We caution against overly optimistic wind–solar-dominated strategies and advocate regionally tailored transitions.