Rural Policy Evolution and SDG Alignment: A Comparative Study of Developed and Developing Countries

Rural policy is pivotal to achieving the UN 2030 Agenda amid rapid global urbanization. This study integrates bibliometric analysis, stage-based comparative policy analysis, and quantitative SDG alignment modeling across six economies (USA, Germany, Japan, China, India, South Africa) spanning 79 rural policy documents from 1913 to 2025. Each document was scored against all 17 SDGs using a three-point ordinal scale, with AI-assisted coding validated through independent human review (inter-coder reliability: Cohen’s κ = 0.763, indicating substantial agreement prior to reconciliation). Bibliometric results document a post-2015 shift from sectoral silos to integrated sustainability frameworks. Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) identify a pattern of “aggregate convergence with structural divergence”: the year of policy enactment is the sole significant predictor of overall SDG alignment (p < 0.01), while income stage and development status show no independent effect on total scores, indicating that global discourse diffusion drives the universal rise in SDG coverage. However, per-SDG regressions demonstrate that income stage and the developed–developing divide significantly shape which specific SDGs receive attention: “late-emergence” goals scale with income, while “development-imperative” goals are systematically prioritized in developing countries. Three distinct evolutionary trajectories are proposed as interpretive constructs derived from comparative analysis: a U-shaped remedial path in developed economies, a J-shaped leapfrogging path in developing economies, and China’s unique Compressed Checkmark trajectory. A Research–Policy–Development nexus model suggests that economic stages act as a “filter” channeling governance capacity toward goals aligned with prevailing social needs. The findings suggest that developing countries may benefit from a “late-comer discursive advantage” in policy-text alignment; however, policy-text alignment does not imply implementation capacity, and realizing SDGs depends fundamentally on developmental resources to bridge vision and reality.